报 告 人：Yu Zhang（张瑜），President of COTA（海外华人交通协会主席）
工作单位：Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering，University of South Florida
Dr. Zhang holds Ph.D. and M.S. from the University of California Berkeley in Civil and Environmental Engineering and Bachelors from Southeast University of China in Transportation Engineering. Dr. Zhang is an expert of network modeling and system analysis with applications in air transportation, multimodal transportation, and shared mobility. Dr. Zhang aims at developing innovative methodologies and concepts for resilient, efficient, and sustainable transportation systems. She has published more than 20 papers in top transportation journals such as Transportation Research Part B, Part C, Part D, and Part E. Dr. Zhang is serving on the editorial board for Transportation Research Part C and is a reviewer for Transportation Science, Transportation Research Part A, Part B, Part C, Part D, Part E, Journal of Air Transport Management, Networks and Spatial Economics, Journal of Cleaner Production, Journal of Air Transport Management, Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems, European Journal of Operation Research etc. Dr. Zhang is actively involved in professional organizations. She is the committee member, research and paper review coordinators for Transportation Research Board (TRB) Airfield and Airspace Capacity and Delay (AV060) committee. Dr. Zhang is also serving as the President for Chinese Overseas Transportation Association (COTA). Dr. Zhang is the recipient of the 2010 Fred Burggraf Award, for excellence in transportation research by researchers 35 years of age or younger, presented by TRB of the National Academies of Science.
Emerging transportation technologies have the potential to significantly reshape the transportation systems and household vehicle ownership. Key among these transportation technologies is the autonomous vehicle, particularly when introduced in shared vehicle fleets. In this paper, we focus on the potential impact that fleets of shared autonomous vehicles might have on household vehicle ownership. To study this issue, we ask a large sample of respondents how likely they would be to consider relinquishing one of their household’s personal vehicles if shared autonomous vehicles were available (thus reducing their household vehicle ownership level by one). For single vehicle households this would be relinquishing their only vehicle and for multi-vehicle households (households owning two or more vehicles) this would be relinquishing just one of their vehicles. Possible responses to the question about relinquishing a household vehicle if shared autonomous vehicles are present are: extremely unlikely, unlikely, unsure, likely, and extremely likely. To determine the factors that influence this response, random parameters ordered probit models are estimated to account for the likelihood that considerable unobserved heterogeneity is likely to be present in the data. The findings show a wide range of socio-economic factors affect people’s likelihood of vehicle relinquishment in the presence of shared autonomous vehicles. Key among these are gender effects, generational elements, commuting patterns, and respondents’ vehicle crash history and experiences. While people’s opinions of shared autonomous vehicles are evolving with the continual introduction of new autonomous-vehicle technologies and shifting travel behavior, the results of this study provide important initial insights into the likely effects of shared autonomous vehicles on household vehicle ownership.